The truth is that I stopped caring about the Oscars a long time ago, right around the time that Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love (which I liked, but come on. “Earn this”? classic). But I keep doing this every year, and since I’m going to an Oscar party on Sunday, I figured I might as well go ahead and firm up my choices.

Oscar Predictions 2006

Best Picture

Should win: Crash was the only one I actually saw, but it definitely shouldn’t win.

Will win: Crash. Did I mention I hate the Oscars?

Best Actor

Should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman. The guy’s great and he seems down to earth. As down to earth as movie actors come, anyway.

Will win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Best Actress

Should win: Felicity Huffman. Though I’d prefer to forget about that show about the wives of the houses (have you heard of it?), I’ve liked her a lot ever since Sports Night. And she’s married to William H. Macy, which means she deserves some kind of prize.

Will win: I have weird visions of Keira Knightley winning, but I’m thinking Reese Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actor

Should win: George Clooney. Syriana should be in many more places than it is.

Will win: George Clooney. If Matt Dillion wins, I don’t know what I’ll do. He’s not even the best actor on Entourage (shout out to the Pivster!)

Best Supporting Actress

Should win: I love Rachel Weisz, and I think she should win an Oscar. Just not for The Constant Gardener.

Will win: Ebert says Amy Adams. And, after last year, I tend to follow Ebert.

Best Director

Should win: Ang Lee. I’ve discovered Ang Lee flips on and off with great regularity. He does Eat Drink Man Woman (not bad), then he does Sense and Sensibility (meh). He does The Ice Storm (great), and then he does Ride with the Devil (bad). He does Crouching Tiger (awesome), and then he does Hulk (self explanatory). Now, he’s done Brokeback Mountain– whatever his next movie is will really, really suck.

Will win: Ang Lee

Best Animated Film

Should win: No Pixar movie this year? Oh man, this will be hard then. Howl’s Moving Castle was good but a rerelease. That leaves the wonderful…

Will win: Wallace and Gromit: Curse of the WereRabbit

Best Foreign Film

Should win: Once again, I haven’t seen any of them.

Will win: Ebert says Totsi. I’ve heard it’s good.

Best Documentary

Should win: I share Ebert’s lament that Grizzly Man didn’t even make the nominees. I haven’t seen it or anything yet, but it is in my queue! And I heard it’s terrific.

Will win: Murderball

Best Original Screenplay

Should win: Syriana deserves every single award it can get. This screenplay was much bigger and more important than even the movie it ended up being. Syriana should win, because it might be the most important American narrative movie of the past five years.

Will win: Oh right, this is Hollywood we’re talking about. Crash, that piece of cliched and unbelievable tripe, will win. It’s not even Paul Haggis’ best work!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should win: A History of Violence was excellent. The Constant Gardener won’t win, but it was great.

Will win: Some flick about gay cowboys. It’s obscure, you probably haven’t heard of it.