I wrote the first two of these.

I know the Oscars are a ways away, but the truth is, I don’t really care much about them this year. There are too many snubs, and too many examples that, surprise surprise, it’s all about politics instead of who made the best movies. Also, I couldn’t really think of something good to write today. So we’ll just get this over with now. You can find all the nominees heeeyah.

Best Actor

Don Cheadle – HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp – FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio – THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx – RAY

Who Should Win: PAUL GIAMATTI. What’s wrong with these Oscar people? If I actually watched awards shows anymore, I’d take my business to the People’s Choice Awards!

Who Will Win: People like that Johnny Depp, but Jamie Foxx has more ads in Variety. If I was a gay gossip columnist, I would say something like “Over-RAY-ted!”

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Alda – THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church – SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx – COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen – CLOSER

Who Should Win: You know Morgan Freeman has never won an Oscar? Because I didn’t. Huh. Interesting.

Who Will Win: I’m thinking Clive Owen has a nice chance, but here’s how I’m suspecting it goes: “Wait a minute, guys– Jamie Foxx is nominated for this, too? Remember a few years ago, when the black people won everything? Remember how much press we got? Well, what if– and hear me out here– what if we gave them to the same person?!?”

Best Actress

Annette Bening – BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno – MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton – VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank – MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet – ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

Who Should Win: Kate Winslet was excellent. I don’t really like her, but she is a great actress.

Who Will Win: For some reason I’m thinking that if Annette Bening doesn’t win, she’ll like get out a pistol, and her and Warren (who’s looking really, really old these days, by the way) will go all Bonnie and Clyde on the whole theater.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett – THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney – KINSEY
Virginia Madsen – SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo – HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman – CLOSER

Who Should Win: I like Cate Blanchett, because she was in Lord of the Rings and a Wes Anderson movie, but I’ve liked Laura Linney longer.

Who Will Win: Virginia Madsen is the favorite, which means Sideways might actually win something. Does anyone else think Natalie Portman is extremely annoying? I didn’t even like her in Garden State– when she smiles, she shows way too much gum. It’s true. Search your heart, Luke, you know it to be true.

Animated Feature Film

THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

Who Should Win: The Incredibles is the only one of these that should ever have been made.

Who Will Win: I don’t think I can even contemplate living in a world where Shrek 2 or, my God, SHARK TALE wins an Oscar over a Pixar movie. Man, what a slap in the face to Polar Express. Nice try, Zemeckis. Thanks, Hanks, but we’re actually going to pick a knockoff animated feature starring The Fresh Prince as a fish over your heartfelt, technologically groundbreaking adaptation of a classic children’s book.

Best Directing

THE AVIATOR
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

Who Should Win: I’m going on record to say that Michel Gondry got the biggest snub this year, because in twenty years, no one will be watching Ray, but film students will still be watching Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Also, no chance that Alexander Payne is ever getting an Oscar. He’s actually talented.

Who Will Win: If he doesn’t win best actor, Eastwood might get a pity statue. More likely, Scorsese will use his eyebrow power to hypnotize Oscar voters, and use his speech to say strange yet vague things about how great Marlon Brando was.

Best Documentary

BORN INTO BROTHELS
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

Who Should Win: Michael Moore didn’t even bother making his movie eligible, probably because he just didn’t care what the Academy thought. If only the makers of Shark Tale had come to the same conclusion.

Who Will Win: Super Size Me was good, but “The Story of the Weeping Camel” sounds much more like an Academy Award Winning Documentary.

Best Foreign Language Film

AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

Who Should Win: Err, I haven’t actually seen any of these. Did the Cowboy Bebop movie come out this year? Where’s Hero? Where’s House of Falling Daggers? And where’s Shaolin Soccer??!?

Who Will Win: Yeah. I have no idea. The one with “Heaven” in the title sounds good.

Best Song

“Accidentally In Love” – SHREK 2
“Al Otro Lado Del Río” – THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
“Believe” – THE POLAR EXPRESS
“Learn To Be Lonely” – THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
“Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)” – THE CHORUS

Who Should Win: Iron and Wine, “Such Great Heights” – GARDEN STATE

Who Will Win: And I thought things were bad when Phil Collins was winning Oscars. Who’ll win? Who cares!

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

Who Should Win: I wonder if Alexander Payne is even going to the ceremony. It would be funny if he and Paul Giamatti hung out at home, watched it, drank wine and laughed their drunk asses off.

Who Will Win: I think this is Million Dollar Baby’s Oscar. Probably the only one, unfortunately.

Best Screenplay (Original)

THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Who Should Win: Man it would rock if Brad Bird got to go up and accept an Oscar for writing a comic book movie. Not likely, but rockage would occur.

Who Will Win: This is like the weird category. All the really weird but good movies get to win this one, so Eternal Sunshine might have a chance. Might.

Best Visual Effects

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

Who Should Win: This is the other category I like, where the Academy kind of hands out a freebie to fanboys everywhere. Spider-man 2 was insane-o cool…

Who Will Win: … and probably has the biggest advertising budget, too. Plus, it would be really lame if I, Robot won an Oscar. Really lame.

And finally…

Best Picture

THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS

Who Should Win: I could be wrong. Maybe people will realize that Sideways got completely snubbed, that the Oscars have gotten way too political, and that awards shows should be more about choosing well-made movies than creating hubbub or putting ads in Variety or upping box office sales. Maybe Sideways really will win, and Alexander Payne will take the stage and give a stirring speech about the power of filmmaking, triggering a new era of cinema, one where the best movies come from emotion and intelligence, instead of hyperbole and ego and insincerity. Maybe everyone in the theatre will stand and applaud, and film students and audiences for years to come will be more interested in making and watching really well made films than overhyped, big budgeted crap.

Who Will Win: But probably not. The Aviator, or, God help us, Ray.